Modelling an avian influenza outbreak
The Public Library of Science has a study of the way in which avian influenza could spread globally, in the event that the limited human-to-human transmission becomes a pandemic.
It is important to note that the H5N1 pandemic may never occur, although as Treebeard the Ent would say in the Lord of the Rings: "Never is too long a word even for me."
It is also important to add the usual caveats about mathematical models. For instance, the model used in the bird flu study assumes: "also does not consider variations in travel frequency between individuals or viral spread in rural areas." Now to just take my personal travel arrangements over the winter months: I've been on eleven passenger aircraft in since early October, traveling to Egypt, four U.S. cities and the U.K.. I have had several chest, throat and synus infections. I'm writing this posting from the lobby of a Columbus, Ohio hotel, but this time next week I am likely to have made another two flights and attend two weddings. The chances for spreading infection from a few hundred people like me are surely enough to distort the models.
That said, the important data from this study:
1) a vaccine is likely to take eight months to prepare from the moment the virus transmits rapidly from human-to-human;
2) strategies involving the deployment in early-affected regions or countries (if international co-operation doesn't break down, which would neither be surprising nor entirely blameworthy) of antivirals like Tamiflu (oseltamivir), should slow down the spread of the virus by up to a year.
On an individual basis, locate a secure supply of antivirals now. You can expect public health authorities to use whatever powers they have to grab private supplies if a pandemic is announced. Keep an eye on this link, the World Health Organization's pandemic alert bulletin. If it rises from 3 to 4, I shall buy an antiviral injection within the week.
Until then, I am keeping an eye out for new treatments and the spread of H5N1, but not worrying about it. Other than a few precautions if traveling to countries that are currently affected by bird flu, there is no cause for alarm at this time.
It is important to note that the H5N1 pandemic may never occur, although as Treebeard the Ent would say in the Lord of the Rings: "Never is too long a word even for me."
It is also important to add the usual caveats about mathematical models. For instance, the model used in the bird flu study assumes: "also does not consider variations in travel frequency between individuals or viral spread in rural areas." Now to just take my personal travel arrangements over the winter months: I've been on eleven passenger aircraft in since early October, traveling to Egypt, four U.S. cities and the U.K.. I have had several chest, throat and synus infections. I'm writing this posting from the lobby of a Columbus, Ohio hotel, but this time next week I am likely to have made another two flights and attend two weddings. The chances for spreading infection from a few hundred people like me are surely enough to distort the models.
That said, the important data from this study:
1) a vaccine is likely to take eight months to prepare from the moment the virus transmits rapidly from human-to-human;
2) strategies involving the deployment in early-affected regions or countries (if international co-operation doesn't break down, which would neither be surprising nor entirely blameworthy) of antivirals like Tamiflu (oseltamivir), should slow down the spread of the virus by up to a year.
On an individual basis, locate a secure supply of antivirals now. You can expect public health authorities to use whatever powers they have to grab private supplies if a pandemic is announced. Keep an eye on this link, the World Health Organization's pandemic alert bulletin. If it rises from 3 to 4, I shall buy an antiviral injection within the week.
Until then, I am keeping an eye out for new treatments and the spread of H5N1, but not worrying about it. Other than a few precautions if traveling to countries that are currently affected by bird flu, there is no cause for alarm at this time.
Labels: H5N1, mathematical models, personal log, travel
posted by Antoine Clarke at 2:39 PM
2 comments
